MORNING BRIEFING: Investors carefully study U.S. retail sales statistics and the Fed beige book

[RTFX-Trading]

Investors carefully study U.S. retail sales statistics and the Fed beige book

What's new:
United States: 345'000 job cuts in May, unemployment rate 9.40%.
United States: six million jobs lost since December 2007.
Switzerland: Inflation year on year drops to its lowest since 1959.
United Kingdom: Producer prices index lowest in 7-1/2 years.
Russia: Russian President Medvedev said that the world was able to avoid the worst.
IMF: considers efforts to revive the euro area sufficient.

Aujourd'hui:
07h45 Switzerland: adjusted unemployment rate in May, exp 3.50%, previous 3.40%.
10h30 Euro zone: June Sentix Index, exp -31, previous -34.3
12h00 Germany: Factory orders in April, exp -0.30%, previous 3.30%.
16h00 United States: Index of employment in May, previous 89.5.

Overnight Rates and Indices:
EURUSD: 1.4002 – 1.3926.
USDCHF: 1.0896 – 1-0835.
GBPUSD: 1.5981 – 1.5923.
EURJPY: 138.02 – 137.40.
USDJPY: 98.86 – 98.27.
DowJones: 8'763 +0.15%.
NASDAQ: 1’849 -0.03%.
S&P 500: 940 -0.25%.
Nikkei: 9’860 +0.94%.
Gold: $958 +0.33%.

Comments:

The market is relieved, as "only" 345'000 Americans lost their jobs in May while the unemployment rate rises to 9.40%. However, skepticism, even pessimism, could regain the upper hand, especially as the price of oil is rising again to around $ 70 and the surge in bond market rates are a cause for concern. In this context, investors will study carefully the statistics of U.S. retail sales and the Fed beige book to try to measure more accurately the changing conditions. The market is awaiting the first estimate for consumer confidence which is expected on Friday.

The dollar regained some of its previous losses late last week, but the trend is expected to resume, a lower U.S. dollar. The dollar’s current status of global reserve currency which it still benefits from could be in jeopardy. This week, the return of optimism on the global economy is expected to push investors towards more appetite for risk; the Pound, the Euro, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar should be supported, while the Japanese yen should weaken.

Have a nice week.

Emman Xuereb

RTFX Ltd
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