MORNING BRIEFING: US consumer’s confidence falls in June, the EURUSD down near 1.4000. UK GDP lowest in 50 years.

[RTFX-Trading]

MORNING BRIEFING: US consumer’s confidence falls in June, the EURUSD down near 1.4000. UK GDP lowest in 50 years.

What’s new?
United States: Surprise drop in consumer confidence in June.
United States: Chicago PMI index rebounds to 39.9 in June.
United States: House prices still in decline.
Germany: Less than expected rise in unemployment in June.
United Kingdom: Most severe decline in GDP in 50 years in 1st quarter of 2009.
Euro zone: Prices lower by 0.10% in June.
France: Public debt increases to €86.5B in 1st quarter 2009.
Japan: Unemployment reaches 5.2% in May, the highest since 2003.
Japan: Business leader’s confidence is improving.

Today:
08h00 Germany: Retail Sales M/M May, exp -0.10%, previous -0.50%.
09h30 Switzerland: PMI June, exp 41.0, previous 39.8.
09h48 France: PMI Manufacturing June, exp 45.5, previous 43.3
09h53 Germany: PMI Manufacturing June, exp 40.5, previous 39.6.
09h58 Euro zone: PMI Manufacturing June, exp 42.4, previous 40.7.
10h28 United Kingdom: PMI Manufacturing June, exp 46.5, previous 45.4.
14h15 United States: ADP Employment Report June, exp -393'000, previous -532'000.
16h00 United States: ISM PMI Manufacturing June, exp 44.5, previous 42.8.
16h00 United States: Pending Home Sales M/M May, exp 0.00%, previous 6.70%.

Overnight Rates and Indices:
EURUSD: 1.4054 – 1.4001.
USDCHF: 1.0886 – 1.0845.
GBPUSD: 1.6489 – 1.6386.
EURJPY: 135.97 – 135.04.
USDJPY: 96.98 – 96.17.
DowJones: 8'447 -0.97%.
NASDAQ: 1’835 -0.49%.
S&P 500: 919 -0.95%.
Nikkei: 10’071 +1.14%.
Gold: $928.25.
Crude Oil: $70.45.
 
Comments:

The Sterling Pound fell yesterday by nearly 2% against the US Dollar, from 1.6744 to 1.6423 following the release of the largest contraction in the UK’s GDP in a quarter for 50 years. Gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 2.40% in Q1 2009 from the previous quarter, the most severe contraction since the 2nd quarter 1958... On an annual basis, GDP fell by 4.90%, an unprecedented fall. Revised figures showed that GDP had declined in the second quarter of 2008, which means that the recession started earlier than expected. Despite the encouraging recent figures, such as the rise in housing prices, which are signs of the beginning of a recovery, the British authorities remain very cautious about a possible exit from the crisis. The sharp drop in GDP could increase concerns about the true extent of the damage to the British economy.

Across the Atlantic, economic activity in the Chicago area started to rise in June, while the confidence of American consumers has deteriorated against all expectations in June.

Today, the market will have a taste of the employment figures due tomorrow, as the ADP employment report for the month of June in the United States is expected for later on today.

Emman Xuereb
RTFX Ltd
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