MORNING BRIEFING: U.S. dollar much lower this morning, Obama sees a contraction of the U.S. economy in 2nd quarter 2009.

[RTFX-Trading]

MORNING BRIEFING: U.S. dollar much lower this morning, Obama sees a contraction of the U.S. economy in 2nd quarter 2009.


What's new:
Japan unemployment rate at 5.40% in June, the highest in six years.
United States: Obama is expecting a contraction of the economy in 2nd quarter.
United States: weekly jobless claims rising.
IMF: the consolidation of European banks should be intensified.
Germany: 6,000 cut in unemployed in July.

Today:
11:00 Euro-zone inflation flash July, expected -0.40%, last -0.10%.
11:00 Euro area: unemployment rate June, expected 9.70%, last 9.50%.
11:30 Switzerland: KOF indicator July, expected -1.50, last -1.65.
14:30 U.S.: Price Index Core PCE Q2, expected 2.40%, last 1.60%.
14:30 U.S. PCE Price Index Q2, expected 1.40%, last -0.90%.
14:30 U.S.: GDP Q2, expected -1.50%, last -5.50%.
14:30 U.S.: GDP deflator Q2, expected 1.00%, last 1.50%.
14:30 Canada: GDP May, expected -0.30%, last -0.10%.
15:45 U.S. : Chicago PMI, expected 43.0, last 39.9.

Rates in Asia and Indices:
EURUSD: 1.4137 - 1.4064.
USDCHF: 1.0884 - 1.0843.
GBPUSD: 1.6549 - 1.6487.
EURJPY: 134.84 - 134.30.
USDJPY: 95.62 - 95.25.
DowJones: 9'154 +0.92%.
NASDAQ: +0.84% 1'984.
S & P 500: 986 +1.19%.
Nikkei: 10'326 +1.59%.
GOLD: $ 937.50.
 Oil: $ 67.55.

Comments:

The dollar fell to 1.4130 this morning against the euro, 1.0851 against the Swiss franc and 1.6535 against the pound sterling following the declaration of the President of the United States, Barack Obama, who said to expect the GDP figures for the 2nd quarter, which will be announced at 14h30CET this afternoon, still show a contraction of the U.S. economy. The rebound in global stocks and raw materials, the results of the companies considered reassuring, have reduced the attractiveness of safe even currencies, which also contributed to the decline of the greenback.

In the eurozone, the flash estimate of inflation in the euro area at 11h00CET for the month of July will be particularly followed. Expectations of a further decline in inflation of 0.40% in July is expected. The unemployment rate for June will be followed with great attention, the market wonders : "When the unemployment rate will reach there the psychological threshold of 10% ???».

Good weekend and good trading.

Nicolas Longchamp
RTFX Ltd
Head Office
The Cornerstone Complex, 16th September Square | Mosta MST 1180 | Malta
Tel:  +356 23 31 00 00
Fax: +356 21 41 24 58
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