MORNING BRIEFING: Optimism about recovery is back at the beginning of 2010

[RTFX-Trading]

MORNING BRIEFING: Optimism about recovery is back at the beginning of 2010

What’s new:
IMF: Lipsky looks for a prudent "optimism" in 2010.
DowJones: increase of 1.50% in the first trading session in 2010.
USA: Duke expects an extended period of low interest rates.
USA: construction spending at lowest level in nearly seven years.
USA: accelerating growth in industry in December.
Eurozone: industrial activity at the highest in almost two years.
England: manufacturing activity at its highest since 25 months.

Today:


Rates in Asia and Indices:
EURUSD: 1.4484 - 1.4406.
USDCHF: 1.0302 - 1.0253.
EURUSD: 1.6154 - 1.6066.
EURJPY: 133.47 - 132.14.
USDJPY: 92.55 - 91.63.
Dow Jones: 10'583 +1.50%.
NASDAQ: 2’308 +1.73%.
S & P 500: 1'132 +1.60%.
Nikkei: 10'681 +0.25%.
Shanghai: 3’281 +1.15%.
Gold: $1,123.
Crude oil: $81.71.

Comments:
The Dollar fell to 1.4470 against the Euro, to 1.0272 against the Swiss Franc and to 1.6135 against the Pound Sterling, optimism about the recovery is back at the beginning of 2010, which benefits the risk assets, such as stock markets or commodities. The increase in activity in the manufacturing sector in the United States for the fifth consecutive months was the detonator. The declaration of the Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke, who estimated that the recovery should continue in 2010, but that the Fed will keep rates "exceptionally" low for an extended period of time to support the labor market, broke expectations of higher interest rate in the US.

Regarding parity EUR/CHF, the nervousness is growing - a possible intervention by the Swiss National Bank is not excluded, I am inclined to action at 1.4800. The publication on Thursday of the consumer prices index and Friday's unemployment rate in Switzerland should make investors even more nervous.

Have a good day.

Nicolas Longchamp
RTFX Ltd
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