MORNING BRIEFING: No surprises from ECB. First major US bank to release Q4 earnings today at 1300 CET.

[RTFX-Trading]

MORNING BRIEFING: No surprises from ECB. First major US bank to release Q4 earnings today at 1300 CET.

What’s new:
Euro zone: No surprise from ECB.
United States: Retail sales fell 0.3% in December versus a 0.5% rise.
United States: Weekly jobless claims to 444K but still showing downward trend.
China: Plays down Google threat, saying any decision will not temper US trade ties.
United States: First major US bank earnings release for Q4 is at 1300 CET today.

Today:


Overnight Rates and Indices:
EURUSD: 1.4511 – 1.4377.
USDCHF: 1.0268 – 1.0181.
GBPUSD: 1.6355 – 1.6285.
EURJPY: 132.41 – 130.50.
USDJPY: 91.32 – 90.65.
DowJones: 10’710.55 +0.28%
NASDAQ: 2’316.74 +0.38%
S&P 500: 1’148.46 +0.24%
Nikkei: 10’982.10 +0.68%.
Shanghai: 3’224.15 +0.27%,
Gold: $1’142.6
Crude Oil: $78.94
 
Comments:

The ECB rate decision and press conference provided little surprise. Trichet did not sound particularly concerned on inflation. He also stated that the ECB will not provide any special treatment for Greece, which pushed Greek sovereign spreads wider.

Meanwhile from the US, retail sales numbers disappointed yesterday. The figures released came in at -0.3% versus an expected +0.5%. On the jobs front, weekly jobless claims rose to 444K from 433K the previous week, however still show a strong downward trend over the past few months. Business inventories posted a 0.4% rise versus 0.3% in November.

Today, the main headlines are the CPI numbers from the Euro area and the US which are expected at 1100 CET and 1430 CET respectively. While also from the US we have Industrial production, the Empire State manufacturing index and the Michigan consumer sentiment gauge. We anticipate a further decline in EURUSD as the key resistance we mentioned earlier this week at 1.4575 area held nicely. Over the coming trading sessions we should see the major attempt a break of the 200 day SMA now at 1.4271.

Have a good week end.

Emman Xuereb

Trading Desk
RTFX Ltd
Risk Disclaimer