ECB rate decision at 13h45 CET and press conference at 14h30 CET will be the key events in today's session.

[RTFX-Trading]

ECB rate decision at 13h45 CET and press conference at 14h30 CET will be the key events in today's session. Both growth conditions and inflation have continued to weaken as of late, and we expect the ECB to take notice of such development. In particular, as a result of further falling global demand. We expect the ECB to cut rates by 50bp as both the latest growth and inflation trends support such a move as being consistent with the central bank's aim to ensure price stability. As growth risks have continued to rise this will also likely be addressed by ECB President Trichet in today's press conference.

Given that the FX market keeps trading interest rate EXPECTATIONS:

a bigger cut than 50bp could result into a higher EURUSD after an initial sell off.

Should the ECB deliver less than 50bp I expect the opposite scenario: the initial rally will reverse and the euro will head for new lows.