MORNING BRIEFING: U.S. Consumer Confidence Index up

[RTFX-Trading]

MORNING BRIEFING: U.S. Consumer Confidence Index up

What’s new :
United States: Better figures than expected for CCI
Great Britain: Growth in Q4 2009 at 0.4%
Euro area: End of Month fixing in London for currencies
Germany: The IMF lowered its growth forecast
France: Public debt less bad than expected
Japan: The yen reaches a new low for 6 months
Japan: Tonight publication of the Tankan Report
Australia: Largest decline in one year for February retail sales

Today:


Rates in Asia and Indices:
EURUSD: 1.3438 - 1.3384.
USDCHF: 1.0684 - 1.0651.
GBPUSD: 1.5104 - 1.5058.
EURJPY: 125.33 - 124.41.
USDJPY: 93.60 - 92.75.
DowJones: 10'907 .42 +0.11%
NASDAQ: +0.26% 2'410 .69
M & P 500: 1'173 .27 +0.00%
Nikkei: 11'128 .93 +0.29%
Shanghai -0.45% 3'114 .26
Gold: $ 1'106 .05
Crude Oil: $ 81.20

Comments:
The Consumer Confidence Index for March published yesterday at 52.5 in the United States, better than expectation (50.0), and better than the previous for February at 46.0, showed a significant improvement in U.S. public sentiment on the evolution of the economy, employment and wages. However, markets are still focused on employment figures for March to be published on Friday.

Although better than expected, growth figures in Britain for the fourth quarter of 2009 at 0.4% (against 0.3% expected) should be taken with caution. The restocking by retailers as well as government stimulus to give a boost to a wheezy recovery are probably the main reasons for these figures, which lower only weakly the slowing in economic growth, final GDP for 2009 remaining negative at -4.9%.

With the End of the Month fixing in London today, short positions covers in EUR may conclude for the moment, and the building of new short positions could weigh again on the EUR.

The International Monetary Fund has revised downwards its estimates for 2010 growth in Germany, from 1.5% to 1.2%, matching the OECD, which is forecasting a growth in Germany for 2010 of 1.1%.

Published this morning the final figure for 2009 deficit in France, representing 7.5% of GDP, is slightly better than the government estimates of 7.9% of GDP.

In Asia, after the end of the Japanese fiscal year, the JPY is again testing the lowest (already tested on January 8 this year) since August 2009 against USD. The publication next night of the Tankan Index (comprehensive survey on the state of the economy is conducted quarterly by the Central Bank of Japan) as usual will certainly be followed closely by the markets.

After the publication of the retails sales figures for February at -1.4, the prospect of another rate rise next week by the Central Bank of Australia seems to fade away and the AUD lost ground against all currencies.

Have a good Day

Pascal Bovay

RTFX Ltd
Trading desk
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