ECB rate cut, G20 revival plan, U.S. job creation.

[RTFX-Trading]

ECB rate cut, G20 revival plan, U.S. job creation.

What's new:
England: the upswing of the PMI services continues.
Russia: A devaluation of the ruble unlikely by the Central Bank of Russia.
Switzerland: Index of consumer prices disappointing.
Switzerland: Economic forecasts conservative.
Today:
11:00 EU: indices of consumer prices in February, forecast -0.40%, previous 0.10%.
11:00 EU: February retail sales, expected -0.50%, previous -0.80%.
14.30 CA: Building permits in February, final -4.60%.
16:00 U.S.: Employment Trends in March, last 91.0
18:00 U.S.: Manufacturing "Midwest" index in February, last 85.6.


Rates in Asia and Indices:
EURUSD: 1.3582 - 1.3509.
USDCHF: 1.1300 - 1.1241.
GBPUSD: 1.4948 - 1.4842.
EURCHF: 1.5283 - 1.5256.
USDJPY: 100.93 - 100.21.
DowJones: 8'017 +0.50%.
NASDAQ: +1.20% 1'621.
Nikkei: 8'612 +0.71%.
Gold: $ 880

Comments:
The euro strengthened against the dollar. The EUR / USD reached the second resistance this morning in Asia. The single currency continues to benefit from the decision of the ECB to cut the base rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% last Thursday, a historic low, while the market expected a more pronounced decrease of 50 basis points. The single currency was further supported by comments made by various officials of the European Central Bank, hinting towards a possible slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts. Expectations for extraordinary measures against the current crisis also support the euro.

The dollar itself is under pressure. The increase in grants, the comments of the G20 and renewed investor optimism reduce the attractiveness of the safe haven status gained by the greenback. The "carry trades" are also up strongly, were the EUR / JPY is 137, the GBP / JPY stands at 150.40, the AUDJPY is at 72.40 while the NZD / JPY surged to 60. A trend of funds seems to be taking place; our RTFX Trend is bullish on the USD / JPY, the NZD / USD and the AUD / USD pairs from 23:00 Thursday night, while the EUR / USD, the EUR / JPY and the GBP / USD turned bullish as of 23:00 Friday evening.

As regards the EUR / USD, the second daily resistance of 1.3580 is to be kept under observation. The down side to 1.3449, which is the daily pivot figure, should also play its role in supporting the swing.

Good Day

Nicolas Longchamp
RTFX Ltd
Head Office
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Tel: +356 27 78 01 35
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