Today: BoE monetary policy and U.S. trade balance

[RTFX-Trading]

Today: BoE monetary policy and U.S. trade balance

What's new:
United States: FOMC Minutes of March 17-18 provide no surprises.
Euro area: UBS revised its growth estimates downward For the Euro area.
Japan: Trade balance positive.
England: A drop in consumer confidence.

Today:
07.45 CH: Unemployment rate in March, due 3.30%, previous 3.10%.
08.00 DE: Index of final consumption in March, due -0.10%, previous 0.60%.
10:30 GB: Index of "core" producer prices in March, due 0.10%, previous 0.00%.
10:30 GB: March trade balance, due 7.58Mrds-final -7.75 billion.
12:00 DE: Total industrial output in February, due -3.10%, previous -7.50%.
13.00 CA: Unemployment rate in March, the last 7.70%.
13.00 CA: Change in number of unemployed in March, last 82'600.
13.00 GB: BoE's monetary policy decision, expected unchanged at 0.50%.
14:30 U.S.: Trade balance in February, due 36.9Mrds-last-36.03Mrds.
14:30 U.S.: Import prices in February, due 0.90%, previous -0.20%.
14:30 U.S.: Export prices in February, due 0.20%, previous -0.10%.
14:30 U.S.: Requests for weekly unemployment benefits, expected $650,000, previous $656'000.
14.30 CA: February trade balance, last -0.99 billion.

Rates in Asia and Indices:

EURUSD: 1.3283 - 1.3232.
USDCHF: 1.1510 - 1.1467.
GBPUSD: 1.4730 - 1.4669.
EURCHF: 1.5257 - 1.5212.
USDJPY: 100.07 - 99.63.
DowJones: 7837 +0.61%.
NASDAQ: 1590 +1.86%.
S & P 500: 825 +1.18%.
Nikkei: 8872 +3.22%.
Gold: $ 884 +0.46%.
Oil: $ 50.37 +2.00%.

Comments:

The Minutes of the meeting of the FOMC held on 17 and 18 March showed, as expected, that the officials have noted the risk of economic slowdown prevailing, and have therefore lowered their forecasts revealed earlier in January. Some members have even cited the risk of deflation. They noted that credit conditions are still tense and unstable in the financial markets. In another article, American officials are likely to extend the financing scheme "TARP" to insurance companies and are continuing discussions with major car manufacturers to find an alternative to bankruptcy.

UBS has revised its growth estimates for the European Union. They expect a decline in real GDP of 3.90% in 2009, which would be the weakest performance since the second world war. The bank added that the ECB has no other choice than to adopt non-conventional monetary policy. Ireland has announced an emergency budget if economic conditions continue to deteriorate. In addition to the budget itself, the government could implement the solution of a "bad bank" (purchase on the national banking system of property-related loans).

The two major events of attraction of the day are the decision of the BoE at 13:00 and the U.S. trade balance announcement at 14:30. In England, despite signs of stabilization in the overall economy and the aggressive action of the BoE, the English consumer confidence has deteriorated in March. The BoE will announce its monetary policy decision at 13:00 this afternoon; it should leave its base rate unchanged at 0.50% for a long time and continue adopting non-conventional monetary policy (Quantitative Easing or "QE”). The second major event of the day is the U.S. trade balance at 14:30; the market expects a significant increase to $ 36.9 billion deficit.

Good Day

Nicolas Longchamp
RTFX Ltd
Head Office
Level 2, Suite 2, The Cornerstone Complex, 16th September Square | Mosta MST 1180 | Malta
Tel:  +356 27 78 01 35
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