The dollar continues to fall, volatility expected this afternoon, England could lose its credit rating

[RTFX-Trading]

The dollar continues to fall, volatility expected this afternoon, England could lose its credit rating "AAA"

What’s new:
UK: the English state could lose its credit rating "AAA".
Europe: Utilities market drop 35.6% in 1st quarter 2009.
US: Home sales down in March, following February rebound.  
US: Weekly Applications for grants increase.
Euro zone: PMI at its highest for six months.
Switzerland Hildebrand: interventions to weaken the Swiss franc still valid.
US Geithner: the global economic downturn subsides

Today :

08h45 CET : FR Mar Consumer Spending, exp  0.30%,  previous -2.00%
10h00 CET : DE Apr IFO Index exp 82.3, previous 82.1
10h30 CET : GB Q1 GDP Prelim Q/Q, exp -1.50%, previous -1.60%
10h30 CET : GB Mar Retail Sales M/M, exp -0.50%, previous -1.90%
14h30 CET : US Mar Durable Goods Orders, exp -1.50%, previous 3.50%
16h00 CET : US Mar New Homes, exp 0.34Mln, previous 0.337 Mln
19h30 CET : G7 Finance Ministers meet
 
Overnight Rates & Indices:

EURUSD:  1.3184 – 1.3113.
USDCHF:  1.1526 – 1.1476.
GBPUSD:  1.4731 – 1.4636.
EURCHF : 1,5144 – 1.5110.
USDJPY:  98.15 – 96.99.
DowJones:  7’957 +0.89%.
NASDAQ:  1’344 +0.65%.
S&P 500: 852 +0.99%.
Nikkei:  8’708 -1.57%
Crude Oil: $49.11 -1.03%.
Gold: $910 +0.90%.

Comments:

Circulating rumours, if confirmed, could be extremely negative for the British pound: a British newspaper reported this morning that England could lose its credit rating 'AAA' following the announcement by the Government that the national debt will reach 1,400 billion pounds in the next five years. The Standard & Poor's Institute examines the credit rating in the United Kingdom.

The afternoon will be busy in terms of economic calendar: controllers of the major U.S. banks will publish the methods of calculation of the "stress test" (no time is fixed), the Fed could begin to publish results as from this afternoon. IMF releases are expected, while the eagerly awaited first declarations of the G7 are expected later in the day. Furthermore, in American newspaper said that the Treasury is preparing a file bankruptcy for Chrysler, which could be presented next week.

I expect a relatively calm morning, despite the German IFO at 10:00. The afternoon should be more volatile. The downward trend of the dollar from yesterday seems to be confirmed, however, given the importance of news from this afternoon, I would not keep positions open on the weekend, although my personal feeling is always for a weaker dollar medium term.

Technically today, the EURUSD is expected up to 1.3209 or 1.3276, then it may correct to 1.3095-1.3060. The EURUSD remains rangebound between 1.3380 - 1.2880, these are two areas to watch for investors who have a long-term view. The USDCHF fell temporarily and should now find support in the 1.1470-1.1446 area.

I recommend extreme caution this afternoon: Consider point no3 of the 8 recommendations from our tutorial: "Let profits run, cut losses short. Always use protective stops to limit losses and move them only to reduce potential losses or protect newly achieved profits. "

Good Day

Nicolas Longchamp

RTFX Ltd
Head Office

Level 2, Suite 2, The Cornerstone Complex, 16th September Square | Mosta MST 1180 | Malta
Tel:  +356 27 78 01 35
Fax: +356 21 41 24 58
Web: www.rtfx.com

This message and any attachments (the "message") are intended solely for the addressees and are confidential. If you receive this message in error, please delete it and immediately notify the sender. Any use not in accordance with its purpose, any dissemination or disclosure, either whole or partial, is prohibited except with formal approval. The internet cannot guarantee the integrity of this message. RTFX Ltd (and its subsidiaries) shall (will) not therefore be liable for the message if modified. Do not print this message unless it is necessary, consider the environment. RTFX Ltd holds a Category 3 license issued by the Malta Financial Services Authority.